Thursday, February 24, 2011

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Why not fulfilled the prediction of Keynes on the journey of three hours.

Can you eat money? How much is enough?
The economic downturn has produced an explosion of popular anger against the "greed" of bankers and their bonuses "obscene", which has been accompanied by broader critique of "development": the pursuit of economic development or the accumulation of wealth at all costs, regardless of the harm caused to the environment of the Earth or shared values. John Maynard Keynes
addressed this issue in 1930 in his short essay "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren." Keynes predicted that after 100 years ie in 2030 - growth in the developed world would have stopped in fact, because people would have "enough" to lead a good life. " Paid working hours be reduced to three a day, a week of fifteen hours. Human beings would be more like the "lilies of the valley that neither work nor spin."
Keynes's prediction was based on the assumption that a 2% annual increase in the capital, a 1% increase in productivity and a stable population, the average living standards would increase by an average of eight This allows us to calculate Keynes thought that was how [enough] . GDP per capita in the United Kingdom at the end of the decade to 1920 (before the crash of 1929) was 5,200 pounds (8,700 dollars), approximately, at current value. So estimated GDP per capita of 40,000 pounds (66,000 dollars), approximately, would be "sufficient" for humans to focus their attention on something more enjoyable. It is not clear why Keynes thought that the average British national income multiplied by eight would be "enough." It is most likely to adopt as a criterion of adequacy of the bourgeois rentier income of the period, which were about ten times higher than the average worker.
Eighty years later, the developed world has come close to the goal of Keynes. In 2007 (ie before the crash), the IMF reported that the average GDP per capita in the United States amounted to $ 47,000 and the United Kingdom with 46,000. In other words, the living standards of the United Kingdom has increased fivefold since 1930, although two of the rebuttal of Keynes's assumptions: that there would be the "major wars" or "population growth" (in the UK population is 33 percent higher than in 1930).
The reason we have prospered so much is that the increase Annual productivity has been higher than projected by Keynes: 1.6%, approximately, in the UK and slightly higher in the United States. Countries such as Germany and Japan have prospered even more, despite the hugely disruptive effects of war. It is likely that most Western countries reach the "target" of $ 66,000 Keynes in 2030.
But it is equally unlikely that this achievement to end the [insatiable aspiration] to get more money. Suppose, provisionally, that we walked the three quarters of the way towards the goal of Keynes. Would be expected, therefore, that the working day had fallen by two thirds. In fact, it has fallen only a third of ... and has ceased to be reduced from the 1980's.

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